One of the mistakes one could do is to compare a pandemic like Corona today with the Spanish Flue of 1918 or the Plague of Europe even before that.
Then the expectancy of human life was less than forty years even in Europe. The literature of Charles Dickens, Maupassant or Tolstoy is full of details of the people who are unable to control either their fertility or their fate. In turn their progeny suffer dire poverty and its consequences. The lives of these illustrious writers were those of a victim of the prevailing social conditions in most cases. Be it deprivation or affluence.
Then an epidemic breaks out and the world reaches to a condition where a war is waiting for it. At times, in the middle of a war, it is caught by an epidemic which takes a heavy toll on either side.
In fact, the contemporary literature of that time, elsewhere too, is full of such descriptions.
The magnificent growth of science since then has made those diseases treatable with very cheap and easily available medicines today. Besides the standards of hygiene today are way ahead than those times.
So, if ever, the humanity is better prepared today than ever before to stem an epidemic or a pandemic long before it reaches the proportions of the old times.
Also, we fortunately live in the age of information which has made it impossible to hold it back for a long time. It spreads in real time all over the world at once.
So, theoretically, it is impossible for an epidemic to terrorize the people like in old times, even in poor societies, which have an easy access to information.
However, it the memory of those epidemics, passed on over the generations, which haunt the people and causes panic among them.
Also, in some cases, the complacent attitude of the people about their safety from a recent epidemic like Corona have left them vulnerable to its ravages even in the affluent part of the world.
It is also important to be watchful about the political implications of Corona as well. Some politicians, who were standing on a shaky ground, could use this situation to fortify their position by doing things which could make the situation worse.
Like black-marketers and hordes, who try to enhance their capital in such conditions, politicians could use this epidemic to gain a political capital.
Therefore an ongoing vigilance is necessary on the part of the savvy, to preempt the possibility that such nefarious designs are allowed to prevail unbridled while the society loses. The standard of probity are still poor among the people who are benefiting from the system prevailing.
Archive for the ‘failing nations’ Category
Stimulous far worse than recession
November 23, 2019A recently published report has brought to light that the global debt is escalating faster than expected and has exceeded two hundred fifty trillion dollars earlier than it was predicted.
It was also mentioned in the report that the two biggest economies of the world account for sixty percent of the total borrowings recently which raced to a staggering 7.5 trillion dollars in the first six months of the current year.
It was not mentioned in this report by what percent it grew over the last year. It also does not mention which of the two biggest economies is more responsible for pushing the world to the abyss of a total collapse. It is important to note that while China has a growth higher than six percent, the USA too has a cool growth of three percent. It is a remarkable growth because the rest of the world is feeling either recession or, worse even, a stagflation. Communist China or the democratic USA: the economic success story is the same for both.
Recently, the Chinese middle class displayed its muscle by spending thirty billion dollars within twenty four hours in online shopping to celebrate the ‘Single’s day’. It can be assumed that the people behind it are young entrepreneurs or professional in their prime years. So it is unlikely that any time in the near future any one can put pressure on China through economic sanctions to make it more amiable to making changes in its polity. Actually reverse could be the case as it is almost similar to the leading economy of the world in size and is growing twice the rate.
It may be a reason that the leaders of former European powers make a bee-line to win favours from China, as recently, President Trump has not been very friendly to them and has placed trade barriers to reduce trade deficit of the USA with EU nations apart from arm-twisting them to cough up more money to foot the bill of NATO.
Besides many countries defined as Emerging economies are already having a debt more than two times their GDP and they are borrowing more to avoid sinking altogether.
Many economies in EU and Argentina and South Africa are incapable of keeping them afloat without a routine bail outs from either IMF or WB; or other agencies; or Germany directly. But for them every fresh economic stimulous has proved worse than the diseases which ail their economies, and they might never get revived for they have a strong culture of distributing social benefits way beyond their capacities.
Any efforts at reforms there have been stiffly resisted by their people. Moreover, these countries have always been advised by their donors like IMF and WB and now in no position to decline more advice from the same. So they no more are sovereign nations in strict terms.
In earlier days these countries were colonial powers, when the plunder of colonies sustained them. After the end of colonialism money-laundering kept them afloat. But now the global public opinion against it has dried it up significantly.
There are more countries which were colonies earlier but are steps away from falling in the similar situation and still have debt less than hundred percent of their GDP. They do not take many advice from the donors but have a colonial system which was not changed much after independence and preys on the people to create a native ruling class which is far more ruthless than the real colonials in exploiting its own people.
However, this can be reversed only if the two largest economies agree to diversify their trade. They account for almost half of the global trade presently and any disputes between them do not last long for it hurts both the sides. Besides their debt situation indicates that they are not in as good health as they claim.
For this situation is precarious for the leading two economies too, as finally it could reach a point of no return and bring down drastically the economy of the world which is barely growing at two percent.
K. C. Bhatt
PR 21 Nov. 2019.
War with Russia?
March 21, 2014The way things are developing, it appears as if the politicians are contemplating a war with Russia. Will such a war get popular support in EU nations is the question. Deep in economical crisis, EU nations have some of the most corrupt people in the leadership. Will a war help cover them up the matters and linger the reforms? I do not think diplomacy can not solve this crisis. The first thing needed is to tone down the voice of a provocative English press, owned by a few Moguls only.
Criminal state
September 26, 2013Things remains the same since Tolstoy. Coup is the need.
WOW ! World Of Words. 